Research · Network Economics
Bitcoin Miners and Security Monitor
The supply side of the network, from primary data: hash rate and the hash ribbons with every capitulation episode since 2011 backtested, miner unit economics through hashprice and the Puell multiple, and the share of miner revenue coming from fees, which must rise as the subsidy declines if total miner revenue is to be sustained. Computed live in your browser from the daily snapshot.
Current readings
Computed from the daily public snapshot for 14 October 2026, published 2026-10-15 11:22 UTC. The charts and tables below are drawn in the browser from the same file; these figures are the ones they show.
| Hash ribbons | expansion | 50 days in state |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day hash rate | 971.6 EH/s | 60-day 947.2 EH/s |
| Puell multiple | 1.202 | 61st percentile |
| Last recovery signal | 26 August 2026 |
Hash rate and the ribbons
Hash-ribbon capitulations, every episode
| Capitulation | Length | Recovery signal | Price | 90d | 180d | 365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2011 → Dec 26, 2011 | 116d | Dec 27, 2011 | $4 | +11% | +56% | +216% |
| Apr 24, 2012 → May 5, 2012 | 12d | May 6, 2012 | $5 | +117% | +119% | +2156% |
| Jun 7, 2012 → Jun 21, 2012 | 15d | Jun 22, 2012 | $7 | +86% | +97% | +1516% |
| Dec 16, 2012 → Feb 3, 2013 | 50d | Feb 4, 2013 | $21 | +445% | +403% | +3793% |
| Dec 18, 2014 → Dec 31, 2014 | 14d | Jan 1, 2015 | $321 | -24% | -20% | +34% |
| May 4, 2015 → May 26, 2015 | 23d | May 27, 2015 | $236 | -10% | +37% | +90% |
| Jul 30, 2016 → Aug 21, 2016 | 23d | Aug 22, 2016 | $577 | +30% | +83% | +591% |
| Oct 30, 2018 → Jan 9, 2019 | 72d | Jan 10, 2019 | $4,017 | +29% | +207% | +95% |
| Nov 20, 2019 → Dec 20, 2019 | 31d | Dec 21, 2019 | $7,190 | -14% | +31% | +232% |
| Mar 19, 2020 → Apr 23, 2020 | 36d | Apr 24, 2020 | $7,478 | +28% | +59% | +584% |
| May 24, 2020 → Jun 22, 2020 | 30d | Jun 23, 2020 | $9,692 | +13% | +146% | +235% |
| Oct 29, 2020 → Dec 1, 2020 | 34d | Dec 2, 2020 | $18,793 | +164% | +90% | +205% |
| Apr 26, 2021 → May 16, 2021 | 21d | May 17, 2021 | $46,442 | +1% | +38% | -36% |
| Jun 3, 2021 → Aug 6, 2021 | 65d | Aug 7, 2021 | $42,826 | +43% | -14% | -46% |
| Jun 9, 2022 → Jul 3, 2022 | 25d | Jul 4, 2022 | $19,289 | +0% | -14% | +61% |
| Jul 5, 2022 → Aug 18, 2022 | 45d | Aug 19, 2022 | $23,194 | -28% | -4% | +12% |
| Nov 27, 2022 → Jan 13, 2023 | 48d | Jan 14, 2023 | $19,933 | +53% | +52% | +115% |
| May 14, 2024 → Jun 16, 2024 | 34d | Jun 17, 2024 | $66,637 | -10% | +52% | +60% |
| Jun 19, 2024 → Jul 22, 2024 | 34d | Jul 23, 2024 | $67,597 | +2% | +54% | +78% |
| Jun 27, 2025 → Jul 22, 2025 | 26d | Jul 23, 2025 | $120,001 | -8% | -22% | -45% |
| Nov 29, 2025 → Jan 2, 2026 | 35d | Jan 3, 2026 | $89,944 | -26% | -33% | – |
| Jan 6, 2026 → Feb 25, 2026 | 51d | Feb 26, 2026 | $67,985 | +12% | +16% | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 → May 9, 2026 | 44d | May 10, 2026 | $80,672 | -20% | – | – |
| May 13, 2026 → May 22, 2026 | 10d | May 23, 2026 | $75,461 | -3% | – | – |
| Jun 8, 2026 → Aug 25, 2026 | 79d | Aug 26, 2026 | $78,522 | – | – | – |
- Recordmedian +105% one year after the recovery signal, 85% of 20 completed episodes positive
- The losers, namedthe recoveries that lost money at a year: May 2021, Aug 2021, Jul 2025
- Regime note4 capitulation episodes in 2026 alone — the densest miner-stress year in the record
Hashprice
- Record low$0.0216 per TH/day, set Feb 22, 2026 — miner unit economics at their worst in the series
- Reading itthe structural decline is halvings and rig efficiency; what matters is the distance between this line and the marginal miner's cost, which is not public
Puell multiple
| Bucket | Median 365-day return | Days |
|---|---|---|
| below 0.5 | +96% | 153 |
| 0.5 to 1.0 | +68% | 1,102 |
| 1.0 to 2.0 ← today | +21% | 1,544 |
| 2.0 to 4.0 | +8% | 387 |
| above 4.0 | -77% | 23 |
The security budget
- Where it standsfees are 0.71% of miner revenue on the 90-day average, against a 19.7% peak in 2018
- Why it matterseach halving cuts the subsidy roughly in half; if this share does not rise across decades, the security budget thins — tracked here, not resolved here
Method
Hash rate is the Blockchain.com estimate in TH/s, shown in EH/s; the ribbons are simple 30- and 60-day averages (Edwards, 2019) with no price filter. A capitulation episode is a contiguous run of the 30-day average below the 60-day lasting at least seven days; flickers shorter than that are ignored and the rule is stated here so it can be checked. Hashprice is issuance plus fees in dollars divided by hash rate. The Puell multiple uses Coin Metrics issuance value. Fee share is fees over fees plus issuance. Forward returns are simple price changes from the recovery-signal close.
What this page tells you, and what it does not
Claimed: the historical record of each series and of the recovery signal, reproducible from the snapshot. Not claimed: that miner capitulation causes bottoms, or that the recovery signal will keep its record; the two 2021 recoveries and the July 2025 one lost money at a year (as of 14 October 2026), and the table shows them. The hash-rate series is an estimate inferred from block times and difficulty, noisy at short horizons by construction. Fee share is the honest open question of Bitcoin security economics, and this page tracks it rather than resolving it.
Sources: the Crypto Exponentials daily snapshot (Blockchain.com hash rate and fees; Coin Metrics issuance and market cap). Hash ribbons: Charles Edwards, "Hash Ribbons and Bitcoin Bottoms," 2019. Hashprice as a term: Luxor. Puell multiple: David Puell, 2019. Nothing here is investment advice.