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Bitcoin Cycle Monitor
Four halving cycles indexed from their halving day, the diminishing multiples, and the drawdown record. Four windows is the entire sample.

This page computes its figures in the browser from the daily snapshot, so it needs JavaScript to show them. The underlying data is public and needs no JavaScript to read: akpasz.github.io/btc-data/data/, documented at github.com/akpasz/btc-data. The methods are readable without scripts at /tools/methods.

Research · Market Structure

Bitcoin Cycle Monitor

Name: Bitcoin Cycle Monitor — Crypto Exponentials
Creator: Crypto Exponentials
License: https://cryptoexponentials.com/terms/

The halving cycles, compared honestly. Each cycle is aligned to its halving date so prices can be compared at the same number of days since the halving. The page shows each cycle's peak, multiple, drawdowns and current position. Four completed cycles are the entire historical sample.

Connecting

History through Oct 14, 2026, 5,902 days

Current readings

Computed from the daily public snapshot for 14 October 2026, published 2026-10-15 11:22 UTC. The charts and tables below are drawn in the browser from the same file; these figures are the ones they show.

Headline readings, 14 October 2026
Days since halving	907	halving 20 April 2024
Multiple this cycle	1.30x	from the halving price
Prior cycles at the same day	2012 19.02x · 2016 5.82x · 2020 2.31x

Days since halving 4

907

next halving, illustrative calendar estimate Mar 20, 2028, 523 days away

Multiple this cycle

×1.30

from $63,824 at the halving

Prior cycles at this day

×19 · ×5.82 · ×2.31

2012 · 2016 · 2020 cycles at day 907

All-time high

$124,777

Oct 7, 2025

Drawdown from high

-33.4%

from the high

Days below the high

372

days more than 1% below the high

Four cycles, one axis — and four is the entire sample

Price indexed to 1 at each halving, log scale, against days since that halving. The compression of the multiples is the diminishing-cycles finding, visible without commentary.

The cycle table

Each cycle's window runs halving to halving (the current one to today). Peak is the highest close inside the window.

Each halving cycle since 2012: the price on the halving day, the highest daily close before the next halving, and how far price fell from that peak. Four complete cycles.
Cycle	Price at halving	Highest close in the cycle window	Multiple	Day of peak	Worst drawdown after peak
2012 halving	$13	$1,137 (Dec 5, 2013)	×91	372	-85%
2016 halving	$663	$19,280 (Dec 17, 2017)	×29	526	-83%
2020 halving	$8,754	$73,094 (Mar 14, 2024)	×8.3	1403	-16%
2024 halving	$63,824	$124,777 (Oct 7, 2025)	×2.0	535	-53%

Diminishing multiples×91 → ×29 → ×8.3 → ×2.0 so far — each window a fraction of the last
The 2020 window's quirkits highest close came Mar 14, 2024, not at the celebrated Nov 9, 2021 top of $67,562 — the four-year rhythm loosening in plain sight
Sample sizefour windows; the table is a record, not a distribution

This cycle compared with earlier cycles

Each prior cycle's multiple at exactly the current day count, and what its window did afterward.

Where each past cycle stood at this same number of days after its halving, and what it went on to do. The current cycle is shown for comparison, not as a forecast.
Cycle	Multiple at this day	Highest close in the cycle window it went on to	Peak day
2012	×19.02	×91 ($1,137)	day 372
2016	×5.82	×29 ($19,280)	day 526
2020	×2.31	×8.3 ($73,094)	day 1403
2024 (this cycle)	×1.30	×2.0 so far ($124,777)	day 535 so far

Drawdown from the all-time high

Percent below the running high, full history. Zero is a new high; the depth and length of each trough is the cost of holding through cycles.

Today-33.4% below the Oct 7, 2025 high, 372 days and counting
Deepest ever-93% (Nov 22, 2011); every cycle in the table above contained a trough of 50% or worse
Reading itdepth of drawdown is the price of the multiples; the two are the same table seen from opposite sides

Method

Daily closes from the snapshot. Halving dates: 28 November 2012, 9 July 2016, 11 May 2020, 20 April 2024; the next is estimated from the 210,000-block cadence and is labelled an estimate. A cycle's window runs from its halving to the next (the current window to today), and the peak is the highest close inside that window — which is why the 2020 row peaks in March 2024 rather than at the November 2021 top the narrative remembers; both are shown in the notes. The overlay chart indexes each cycle to 1.0 at its halving close. Nothing is smoothed.

What this page tells you, and what it does not

These are the historical records of four cycle windows, reproducible from the daily snapshot. The page does not establish that halvings cause the pattern, that four observations define a law, or that diminishing multiples will continue. The halving schedule is public decades in advance, so an efficient market should price it; the honest statement is that the pattern has held loosely for four cycles while weakening each time, and that the 2020 window's high arriving three years after its celebrated top is evidence the rhythm is loosening, not tightening.

Sources: the Crypto Exponentials daily snapshot (Blockchain.com daily price). Nothing here is investment advice.